Cubs hope to stay hot versus Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The confidence level in the Windy City has to be high after how easily the Chicago Cubs handled the two-time defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies this weekend at Wrigley Field.

Chicago's chances of keeping the spirits high just got a bit easier with the lowly Houston Astros in town Monday for the opener of a three-game series between NL Central inhabitants. The Cubs took three of four contests from the Phillies and are coming off Sunday's 11-6 beating behind big contributions from Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto.

Soriano and Soto both finished 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and three RBI off Phils ace Roy Halladay, while Derrek Lee drove in three runs for Chicago, which has won seven of its last 11 games and is 3-1 on a 10-game homestand. Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro both had three hits in a winning cause.

"We swung the bats really well today off a good pitcher," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said on the team's site. "You put six runs on the board against Roy Halladay, and you have to feel good about your offense."

Tom Gorzelanny took the hill for the Cubs last night and evened his mark at 5-5 after holding the Phillies to three runs -- two earned -- on five hits and five walks over 6 2/3 innings.

The Cubs will attempt for more success tonight with Carlos Silva on the hill, but he's only 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA over his last six starts since opening the 2010 campaign 8-0 over his first 11 trips to the mound. Silva lasted just 1 1/3 innings his last time out on July 11 against the Los Angeles Dodgers and gave up six runs on six hits in a 7-0 loss.

Silva fell to 9-3 overall and raised his earned run average to 3.45. The righty will take on the Astros again this season and beat them on April 16 by allowing just two unearned runs over seven innings of a 7-2 victory. Silva is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in seven career games (2 starts) against Houston.

The Astros lost the last two portions of a three-game series at Pittsburgh and have dropped four of six games overall. In Sunday's 9-0 drubbing at PNC Park, Pirates starter Paul Maholm threw a three-hit shutout to stymie Houston's lineup.

Angel Sanchez had a team-high two hits and Chris Johnson recorded the other base hit for Houston, which lost starter Roy Oswalt to a left ankle issue after the right-hander was struck by a line drive. He lasted four innings and gave up two runs and seven hits with five strikeouts.

"I couldn't really finish pitches," Oswalt said on Houston's website. "Couldn't really get through pitches, and left two balls kind of spinning in the plate, and got a few hits."

Oswalt, who is probable for his next start, remains one win shy of Joe Niekro's franchise record 144 victories. The bullpen did no better in relief on Sunday, as Chris Sampson and Wilton Lopez both allowed two runs and Casey Daigle was reached for three more.

Wandy Rodriguez hopes to get a bit more support when he makes his 19th start of the season tonight. Rodriguez had a personal three-game winning streak stopped on July 11 in a 4-2 loss versus St. Louis, as he surrendered three runs on four hits in six innings of work.

Rodriguez, who is 2-6 in nine road starts this season, fell to 6-11 this season to go along with a 4.97 earned run average. He faced the Cubs in a 3-2 win on April 18, but did not figure into the decision after giving up two runs and six hits in seven innings. The lefty is 4-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 career starts against Chicago.

Houston has won four of six matchups with Chicago this season, one year after the Cubs took 11 of 17 matchups between the two clubs.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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