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07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Suddenly slumping right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez has a few positives going for him today when he gets the call for the Colorado Rockies in the third and final game of their series with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates at Coors Field.
First, the 26-year-old is unbeaten in eight starts this season on home turf in Denver, going 6-0 with a 3.52 earned run average across 53 2/3 innings of work. Second, he's never lost to the Pirates in four career starts, going 2-0 while holding Pittsburgh batters to just 18 hits while striking out 21 in 28 innings.
Still, the season's dominant first-half phenom has struggled along with his team of late, going winless in two post All-Star Game starts while lasting just 7 1/3 combined innings and allowing nine hits and 12 runs with nine walks.
He retired only six batters in a 10-2 loss at Philadelphia in his last start five days ago, walking six and striking out two. It was his first loss since May 9.
Pittsburgh counters with 28-year-old lefty Paul Maholm, who's alternated wins and losses in his last five decisions.
The Mississippi native fell to 4-6 on the season with a 13-3 loss at Texas on June 23, then bounced back with a 2-1 win over the Chicago Cubs on June 28 at Wrigley Field.
He lost, 12-4, to Philadelphia on July 3, then split a pair of post-break starts with a complete-game win over Houston on July 18 and a 5-3 loss to San Diego on July 23.
Maholm, who's making the 148th start of his career, is just 1-4 against Colorado in six outings with a 5.20 ERA.
He is 2-2 on the road this season.
On Wednesday, Garrett Jones homered twice as part of a four-hit night and drove in three runs as the Pirates overcame an early injury to pitcher Ross Ohlendorf to win, 6-2.
Neil Walker added a two-run single as Pittsburgh posted back-to-back road wins for the first time since May 14-15 against the Cubs.
Ohlendorf was struck in the head by a line drive off the bat of Troy Tulowitzki in the first inning. With a runner at third and two outs, Tulowitzki lined a ball off the side of Ohlendorf's head and the ball bounced into right field. Carlos Gonzalez scored on the play for a 1-0 Colorado lead.
Ohlendorf went to a local hospital, but a CT scan came up negative and he was diagnosed with a contusion and abrasion.
Sean Gallagher (1-0) fanned four batters over three innings to get the win.
Aaron Cook (4-7) allowed six hits and five runs over 2 1/3 innings to drop his second straight start.
Gonazlez homered for the Rockies, who have lost eight in a row, their longest skid since dropping eight straight from June 22-30, 2008.
Colorado won six of nine matchups with the Pirates last year and has dominated this series at home over the past two seasons, having gone 9-3 against Pittsburgh at Coors Field since 2008.
<< Tigers go for a road win against Price
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been over a month since the Detroit Tigers last won a
game on the road. A matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays and David Price doesn't
seem to bode well for the struggling club's chances of ending that drought.
Price w
<< Lowe tries to lead Braves to series win in D.C.
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves shoot for a series win this afternoon
when they play the rubber match of their three-game series with the Washington
Nationals at Nationals Park.
A 3-0 loser in Tuesday's opener, Atlanta bounced back to
<< Newcastle signs goalie Krul to four-year deal
Newcastle, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newcastle signed goalkeeper Tim Krul to
a four-year contract on Thursday.
Krul, 22, joined Newcastle in 2005 and has made seven starts and played twice
as a substitute. His new deal runs through the 20
<< Top-seeded Youzhny reaches Gstaad quarters
Gstaad, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Russian top seed Mikhail Youzhny
was a second-round winner Thursday at the Swiss Open Gstaad.
The world No. 14 Youzhny handled Swiss wild card Alexander Sadecky 7-5, 6-4 on
the clay courts at Roy
Indiana State seeking OC after Walters' departure >>
Terre Haute, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana State is conducting a fast search
to replace its offensive coordinator after Troy Walters resigned earlier this
week to accept the position of wide receivers coach at Texas A&M.
In his only seas
Padres send out Latos in hopes of taking set from Dodgers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mat Latos attempts to win his seventh straight decision
this evening, when the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers close out a
three-game series at Petco Park.
Latos, who had recently been sidelined with a strained le
Phils shoot for eighth straight win, sweep of D-Backs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While the Philadelphia Phillies wait for Roy Oswalt to
approve a trade to them, they will shoot for a three-game sweep of the Arizona
Diamondbacks tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
According to multiple reports, the Phillies
White Sox put home streak on line in finale with Mariners >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox try for their first 11-game home
winning streak in 21 years this evening, when they attempt to complete a four-
game sweep of the Seattle Mariners at U.S. Cellular Field.
Chicago won for the 17th time
Huskers' Lucky hospitalized for undisclosed reason
LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.
The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.
MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.
A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.
A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.
Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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