Mavs send Warriors to ninth straight loss; Ellis hurts knee

Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Terry made 6-of-9 three-point tries, finishing with a season-high 36 points, along with nine assists and six rebounds, as Dallas took control in the fourth quarter in a 127-117 victory over Golden State.

It appeared as if the Warriors were on their way to snapping an eight-game losing streak, but the Mavericks outscored the hosts 37-19 in the final frame to earn just their second win in six games, which included a home setback to the lowly Timberwolves on Friday.

Jason Kidd recorded 17 points and 12 assists, while Josh Howard and Drew Gooden added 25 and 24 points, respectively, for Dallas, which received a 15- point, eight-rebound effort from Dirk Nowitzki. Gooden also pulled down 10 caroms in a winning cause.

Anthony Morrow paced the Warriors with 33 points and 11 rebounds, while Stephen Curry donated 25 points and nine assists in the loss.

Golden State's leading scorer, Monta Ellis, netted 27 points but went to the ground hard after making a driving layup late in the fourth quarter. He stayed on the floor for a moment, favoring his left knee before gingerly walking under his own power to the bench.

"I was just praying that he was alright, me coming off that knee injury and him having a knee injury like that earlier in his career it was just tough seeing that, so I just wanted to run down there and make sure he was alright," Morrow said. "I was glad he got up on his own, I just hope it's not as bad as it seemed like it was."

Ellis has a sprained knee. He's scheduled to have an MRI Tuesday.

Dallas, which trailed by as many as 14, took its first lead of the night, 108-106, on Nowitzki's three-point play with 6:40 left in regulation.

The free throw capped a 14-4 spurt, and the Mavs continued to build momentum in front of a suddenly silent Oracle Arena crowd.

A pair of Gooden makes at the stripe finished off eight straight Dallas points and resulted in a 116-110 game with 4:51 left.

Ellis went down a minute later, and Golden State didn't have the fire power to match Dallas' hot streak from the field, making just one field goal over the final 5:55 to fall short yet again.

The Mavericks missed their first six shots from the floor and found themselves down 12-3 after four minutes of action.

Jose Barea's late three-pointer cut the deficit to 34-29 heading to the second, but the Warriors scored the first seven points of the stanza -- capped by a Curry three-pointer -- for a 12-point lead.

Golden State continued to play front-runner until the fourth, taking a 70-61 lead into the locker room and upping the difference to 98-90 with 12 minutes to play.

Game Notes

Anthony Tolliver chipped in 14 points and 11 boards for the Warriors, who committed seven of their 15 turnovers in the fourth quarter...Ronny Turiaf also scored 14 points for Golden State...Dallas shot 52.1 percent from the field and made 12-of-22 from three-point range.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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