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03/13/2010 - Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Armon Bassett poured in 25 points and made the go-ahead jumper late in overtime, as the ninth-seeded Ohio University Bobcats punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament with an 81-75 victory over the third-seeded Akron Zips in the Mid-American Conference Tournament championship game.
Bassett also pulled down six rebounds for the Bobcats (21-14), who claimed their fifth MAC tournament title and their first since 2005. D.J. Cooper donated 23 points, seven boards, and six assists for Ohio, which improved to 5-1 all-time in MAC title contests.
Jimmy Conyers finished with 19 points and 12 rebounds for the Zips (24-10), who were playing in the event's title game for the fourth consecutive season. Akron defeated Buffalo in last year's conference final to secure its first- ever MAC tournament championship.
Chris McKnight chipped in 18 points and 10 rebounds, while Steve McNees made four three-pointers en route to 12 points in defeat.
McNees drilled a three-pointer with 1:42 left in overtime to deadlock the tilt at 75, but Bassett responded with a jumper at the other end to put Ohio in front by two.
Brett McKnight was then off mark with a trey, and Cooper made a pair of free throws at the opposite end of the floor to make it 79-75 with 24.9 seconds left.
McNees and Chris McKnight failed to make three-pointers for the Zips, sealing their fate.
Trailing 57-56 with 7 1/2 minutes to play in regulation, Ohio went on a 9-2 spurt to go ahead by six. Asown Sayles tallied four points during the surge, which Kenneth van Kempen ended with a pair of free throws to make it 65-59 with over 2 1/2 minutes to go.
Darryl Roberts stopped the bleeding by making a jumper and layup around a Bassett free throw, cutting the gap to three, 66-63, with 1:42 left.
At the other end of the floor, DeVaughn Washington turned the ball over. Roberts continued his strong play down the stretch by making a jumper from the foul line to make it 66-65 with 53.8 seconds remaining.
Bassett lost his balance and the ball at the same time, allowing Akron to run the other way with a chance to go in front. Chris McKnight's attempted layup was blocked by Washington, but the Zips kept possession as the ball went out of bounds with 19.4 ticks to go.
Akron nearly made a costly mistake when Brett McKnight threw away the inbound pass, but the Bobcats followed suit and threw away their inbound pass.
The turnovers continued to pile up in the final seconds, as Bassett stole Akron's inbound pass. Bassett made a pair of free throws to give Ohio a 68-65 lead with 13.5 seconds remaining.
McNees came up big for the Zips, though, draining a game-tying three-pointer with 6.8 ticks left. Cooper missed a jumper as time expired in regulation.
Neither team led by more than five points in a tight first half that saw Ohio take a 36-34 edge into the locker room.
The close battle carried over into the second half and into the final moments of the game.
Game Notes
Ohio leads the all-time series with the Zips, 31-30, but Akron took both regular-season matchups this season from the Bobcats....Akron was trying to become the third program in MAC tourney history to win back-to-back championships. Kent State did so in 2001 and 2002, and Ball State in 1989 and 1990...The Bobcats shot 46.7 percent from the field, while the Zips made 35.9 percent of their shots...The contest featured 13 ties and 24 lead changes.
<< Kansas captures Big 12 title with third win over K-State
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Morris donated 18 points and nine
rebounds to lead No. 1 Kansas to its seventh Big 12 Tournament championship
behind a 72-64 victory over ninth-seeded Kansas State.
The Jayhawks (32-2) never
<< Sidney's Candy garners San Felipe Stakes
Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sidney's Candy, winner of the San Vicente
Stakes, made it two straight Saturday by winning the $150,000 San Felipe
Stakes at Santa Anita Park. The colt covered the 1 1/16-miles in 1:42.30.
Ridden by
<< No. 2 Stanford handles Cal, on to Pac-10 final
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike led all scorers with 18
points along with 10 rebounds as the No. 2 Stanford Cardinal handled the
California Golden Bears, 64-44 in the semifinals of the Pac-10 Conference
Tournam
<< NBA suspends Bulls' Hinrich one game, fines Suns coach Gentry
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NBA suspended Chicago Bulls guard Kirk
Hinrich for one game and fined Phoenix Suns head coach Alvin Gentry $25,000
for separate incidents from Friday.
Hinrich made contact with an official during
Magic win eighth straight, top Wizards >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard put up 28 points, grabbed 15
rebounds and even dished out five assists, as Orlando overcame a sluggish
start to upend lowly Washington, 109-95.
J.J. Redick netted 18 points, and fellow
Bryzgalov, Coyotes shut out Hurricanes >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Bryzgalov made 29 saves to record his NHL-
leading eighth shutout, and the Phoenix Coyotes won their fourth straight game
with a 4-0 rout of the Carolina Hurricanes.
Lee Stempniak and Martin Hanzal each
Rafalski's OT tally lifts Detroit over Buffalo >>
Detroit, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brian Rafalski's power-play goal 31 seconds
into overtime gave Detroit a 3-2 win over Buffalo at Joe Louis Arena.
Buffalo's Tyler Myers was called for delay of game late in regulation and the
penalty carr
Smith's 11 helpers paced Atlanta over Detroit >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Johnson finished with 26 points, as the
Atlanta Hawks used an efficient offensive performance to take a 112-99 victory
over the Detroit Pistons.
Josh Smith added 18 points and a career-high 11 assis
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.
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