State bragging rights on line, as Spartans visit Wolverines

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/10/2009 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - State and Big Ten rivals will collide in Ann Arbor tonight as the Michigan Wolverines attempt to upset the ninth-ranked Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State owns a stellar 19-4 record this season, including an impressive 9-2 mark in Big Ten play. The club is fresh off a 75-47 thrashing of Indiana on Saturday, and four of the last five outings have resulted in victory. There are plenty of reasons for optimism heading into this evening's tilt for Michigan State, including the fact that it has won all six of its true road games this season.

As for Michigan, its 15-9 overall record is clearly more impressive than the 5-6 league mark that the team has compiled thus far. The Wolverines actually got off to a promising start in conference, but three of the last four outings and six of eight have ended in defeat. On Saturday, they took a break from Big Ten action to take on top-ranked UConn, and the result was a 69-61 loss on the road. Clearly, Michigan was competitive in the setback, so that loss may actually spark some confidence.

Tonight's game marks the only scheduled meeting of the season between these rivals, and the Wolverines hold a 91-71 series lead over the Spartans.

Michigan State has been forced to play without standout Raymar Morgan because of pneumonia, and it is unclear when he will be back in the lineup. Morgan is averaging 12.3 ppg to place second on the squad, and he is grabbing 6.0 rpg as well. Kalin Lucas is the leader for the Spartans with 14.8 ppg, and he has dished out 112 assists against only 40 turnovers. As for Goran Suton, who is the club's third and final double-digit scorer, he provides 10.1 ppg and 8.0 rpg. Michigan State is posting 75.5 ppg through 23 outings while limiting foes to 64.4 ppg. The Spartans were outstanding at the defensive end against Indiana on Saturday, as they held the young and inexperienced Hoosiers to 31 percent overall shooting while forcing 21 turnovers. Chris Allen scored 16 points off the bench for Michigan State, while Draymond Green added 15 points and 12 boards. Suton (12 points) and Lucas (10 points) added balance.

Michigan is only scoring 68.2 ppg this season on 42.1 percent shooting from the field. Fortunately, the club has been able to limit its opponents to 63.4 ppg, and strong defense is a major reason the club has been able to win 15 games. Manny Harris is the leading scorer for Michigan this season, as he is racking up 17.5 ppg to go along with other team highs of 106 assists and 31 steals. The only other double-digit scorer on the roster is DeShawn Sims, as he is netting 14.8 ppg while grabbing 7.5 rpg. Considering the fact that Michigan shot just 38.6 percent from the field against UConn on Saturday and was outscored by 11 points from the foul line, it is hard to believe that the Wolverines were even able to stay close. They were outrebounded by a 47-24 margin but forced 17 turnovers while committing just 10 of their own. Stu Douglass had 20 points on 6-of-8 shooting from three-point range to pace Michigan in defeat.

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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